Officially over 1/3 of the way through the season after this Round & we get a good look at most sides as we start to see the results tickle in. The big take away for me so far seems to be the one-sided Home form. I'll have to double check the stats as they might be wrong but out of 60 games so far only 8 away teams won their games. Incredible stat that only 13% of all games have been won out of 60 games by the away team. If you took Quinns 3 home loses out of that 8, you're left with only 5 away wins over those 60 games which is even more incredible. Unsure what this means but it certainly indicates that Home form will be a Massive factor coming into the middle section of the season.
BASSENDEAN 2 v QUINNS ROCKS
N Strachan, N Hall, R D'Souza, K Durward
E O'Sullivan, T Alden, R Cummings, S Bermingham
M Cook, P Hutchinson, R Maynard, J Holman
P Madigan, B Dinnison, D Blight, R Sheppard IN: No change OUT:
S O'Neill, B Crawford, A Barker, C Taboni
R Cantrill, M Hinchcliffe, T Burrows, S Cavanagh
H Ward, L Oldham, C Bartle, R Thomas
J Berecz, S Smith, P Geenacker, L Johnson IN: L Oldham OUT: P Dean
Basso have no made any changes to last Round & Quinns have just made the 1 so same same for both really & neither side has made massive changes over the 6 Rounds so far. We have 2 very similar teams here with both sitting on 12pts & similar score difference so pretty balanced & that shows in positioning with 8th v 9th on the ladder.
Hard game to call on paper but you might think that the home side hold the advantage & that's probably multiplied by 5 with Quinns terrible away record as they are about 2 from the last maybe 13 away games. Both sides could win this one so I wouldn't be surprised if Quinns took the chocs but I'll maintain this ridiculous Home advantage in the 1 White results this year.
Bassendean 6 - 2
WANNEROO v MT LAWLEY
K Toster, L Bryson, D Anderson, B McMurdo
D Triffitt, M Nievelstein, S Denny, G Sarich
C Bucholz, C Parr, B Nelson, R Burns
N Costello, D Griffin, G Jack, B Bucowski IN: OUT: No change
A Einfeld, D Rhodes, A Graham, M Bessant
C Bessant, G Herriot, J Bessant, K Cornell
M Masel, T Ingram, J Cottier, K Scott
A Jones, L Kelly, P Sinden, C Green IN: OUT: No change
Massive game for the Roos. They’ll be keen on understanding where they sit in 1 White & they’ll get their answer by 5pm Sat. Either they bring their A game or they’ll be badly rolled.
The Mounters nearly have double the amount of rinks than the Roos over only 6 Rounds & with 5th, 6th & 7th sitting on nearly the same points it’s critical the Roos get something out of this game. However, if all they get from this Round is a good hard lesson then it’s curtains for the return fixture next year & Wanneroo will drift away from the top 4 & they’ve got the Roosters away the following week.
Mounters should be too strong but even if the Roos don’t take the Agg they need to ensure this goes right down to the wire.
Mt Lawley 6 - 2
GOSNELLS v COCKBURN
G Nicol, S Harris, N Tulett, M Crabb
B Holland, G Lynch, M Rickard, M Byrne
R Foy, T Close, P Gale, D Bradbury
F Carbone, C Hickinbotham, P Deas, A Hodge IN: M Byrne OUT: M Sharpe
J Marevic, I Mateljak, B Vidovich, V Dropulic
W Tepania, D Bandy, D Ravlich, A Edwards
M Simunovic, M Musulin, D Gurr, D Gibson
M Abonnel, J Ricci, B Blagaich, B Dropulic IN: No changes OUT:
GAME OF THE ROUND: Both these sides are travelling well, winning big when they have the chance & are solid across all 4 rinks. If the Roosters take the Agg here I’ll be finding it very difficult not having them in my top 4 & this would then make that R8 fixture just massive. Big 2 weeks for Cockburn because if they win both it sends a huge message that they’re genuine top 4 & I think they’ll go very very close.
The kookaburras are just smooth as silk at home & whether they liked their lesson last week or not, they’ll be itching to get a quick start to enough it’s not back to back loses. If Gosnells are top 3 they need to be putting these games away & afford to drop the away fixture against a good side like Cockburn but they need to be accumulating the home wins. If there’s more than 10 shots in this I’ll be shocked. Great game to watch if you’re around the area.
Gosnells 6 - 2
SORRENTO v BASSENDEAN 1
, , ,
, , ,
, , ,
, , , IN: OUT:
S Alden, R Kenyon, D Snelgar, B Tie
S Davies, L Pike, D Killisch Von Horn, J Carrigan
J Krstic, T Lynch, M Whitely, N Kirkup
R Ellis, L McKay, G Stokes, M Watson IN: No change OUT:
The Swans grabbed a lovely later Agg last week & to go on the road back-to-back & come home with 7pts over 2 weeks isn't too bad at all. At home they are a different side & much harder to beat so the Lions will need to bring the A game or they'll find themselves in trouble early. The more games Basso drop early in the season the more Mt Lawley will be licking their lips. Basso needs to be putting these games away if they have genuine hope of returning to the PL. The most the Swans have beaten another side by is 13 shots so their games are close & not decided until late on so if Basso get a run on them they'll probably cruise home by 16 shots.
Bassendean 1 7 - 1
WARNBRO v ROSSMOYNE
K Cousens, T Dellar, S Ryan, D Sudden
B Kalinowsky, W Baker, C Foster, D Kitson
D Pattullo, A Shone, D Wagstaff, B Galvin
Dr G Jackson, L Kellow, I Gibson, A De Brouwer IN: W Baker, B Galvin, D Wagstaff, L Kellow OUT: K Bancroft, D Kitson, A Shone, G Watts
R Vind, T Churcher, P Brotherston, G Maesepp
J Carter, A Petchell, P Chappell, P Voon
W Harvey, R Halse, P Feszczak, H Slowiak
C Edson, M Barrett, G Eades, N Edson IN: No change OUT:
Tough game here for both sides are they both desperately need the points. Wizards have rung wholesale changes with 4 movements. The Home side are just shell shocked at what's happening & they just need to take a deep breathe & let the last month go. They have lost 2 from 3 at home which is unusual for them as they only dropped 1 game at home all season last year & were scoring for fun at home.
The River Rats really struggled away from home in 1 White in 2019/20 & I think they only won 2 games away all season. This season they are also 0-2 away & I can't see their away form suddenly improving on Warnbro's track. Surely the Wizards will bounce back this Round & get their mojo going.
Warnbro 7 - 1
Post R6 Predictions - Who goes where......
So here we are again doing the annual traditional of R6 predictions to the end. We have serviced & oiled up the random thumb sucking machine to try and find a winner for the season & mostly have some fun while doing it. We'll put out the usual disclaimer that this is for a little bit of fun so let's not be taking it too serious. Also not 1 single result was manipulated or altered after each was separately scored so even though the finish at the top looks manufactured it’s 100% genuine.
Although if you are of the belief that your team should finish higher than predicted you have a very good chance this Saturday at 1.30pm & for 11 more Sats to make a difference & prove us wrong....it's literally all in your own hands.
1st - 108pts: And the winner is Mt Lawley.....congrats on making it to the Premier League, the big dance awaits!! What an amazing season & may you stay up there for many more years to come. Everyone else just give up now & go home, the show is over. Well that was EASY. See you all next weekend for another review.
God we wish it was that easy & it didn’t involve the many hours of prep. The interesting part to the season seems to be after R11 where Basso & Gosnells are only about 5pts behind Mt Lawley & the Mounters come right back to the field. Absolute game on for PL but Mounters steady & push clear again heading into the final 3rd of the season. Finishing with 108pts is a pretty solid effort & deserving of a ticket to the PL. For context they are 40% there & have only played 33% of the games so far so they are tracking well. Last season Mossies went up with only 90pts & the greatest run for the ages had to be Sorrento who finished with 105.5pts in a COVID restricted year by playing only 16 games & losing only 1 game ALL season & that was their very last game when they couldn't care.
In the end, it turns out to be a season of massive controversy as Basso 1 play Basso 2 in the final game of the season & Basso 1 are 6pts off Mt Lawley on points (6/1 on Sportsbet to catch Mt Lawley), but after a midnight Lions rendezvous the Friday night before the game at Alfred's Kitchen while pretending to order burnt pea soup the Basso 2 side agree to take a knee for the final game, they play appalling & give Basso 1 the full 8 pts to give them a chance of catching Mt Lawley but they also needed the Mounters to drop their Agg to take top spot. Low & behold in the final game Mt Lawley thought they had it in the bag needing only 1pt from the last Einfeld rink who were all square on the last when amazingly Rhodes & Bessant put down 4 wrong bias & shock horror they lose, whilst dropping the Agg. Then shockingly Rhodes & Bessant whipped off their Mt Lawley tops only to reveal their last season's Basso shirts!! The bowls world was stunned. The Basso boyz did a Trojan Horse infiltrating the Mounters for the season & duly joined their old Lion comrades back at the Basso bar drinking heavily into the night, sponsored by Sportsbet. Well you could have written a book about it, shocking stuff, can't wait to read the book & see the Movie, sounds fantastically absurd. And so it should be as Basso 2 doesn't take a knee (oops there I said it again....joking, joking....God I hope Ken Pride is not reading this dribble) until R12.
However the REAL end is just as thrilling, probably even more thrilling because it actually does go right down to the last bowl on the last Round on the last rink. More about that later.....back to Mounters.
The Mounters continue their dominance but have a serious mid-season wobbler as the Vegas lights become brighter after Xmas but they compose themselves, clean up the skid marks & put on a clean pair of pants, rebound & just barely get over the line. I have 5 pivotally games for them this season, which they lose 4 & still go up. So if they win 2 of those 5 I think they'll go up easier in the end but to go up in top spot & onlying losing 4 games all season would be amazing but a tough ask. They don't even look like losing a game but the reality is they haven't had many tough games over the last 2 years so it will be hard to maintain concentration for all 18 games. If they win 14 games they go up no matter what any other team does & that's pretty much mathematically correct from R7 onwards. So from here I think they only need 8 games & they have automatic promotion. Given 6 of them games will be at home they only need 2 on the road which should be achievable.
2nd - 103.5pts - Bassendean 1: Oh Basso soooo close to grabbing a flag enroute back to the big dance but lost it in a nail-biter on the last day. What is this nail-biter we talk of, you ask?? Well some might have worked it out already but guess who plays who in the final game of the season....correct Basso 1 v Mt Lawley over in their place. Now let me paint you a picture with Basso 1 going on a dreamy run for the season after R17 Basso 1 are 'predicted' to be 101.5pts & the Mounters are on 102pts, yep seriously!! Let me just say I absolutely swear on someone meaningful's life we did not see these numbers until all 120 outstanding results game in through the magic predictor machine so I'm genuinely not making this stuff up. There is literally 0.5pt between the sides coming into R18.....it's the finish of ages, forget all other games, get yourselves down to Mt Lawley on 26 March 2022 & see for yourselves. Now if Basso win they grab the flag...men will be made this day, dreams will be broken & the bar at Mt Lawley will be packed 6 deep.
The reality is for the Lions to make the above happen they need to be brilliant, unbeatenly brilliant & that starts by beating the Mounters in R9, if they can’t do that I think the rest is difficult unless Mt Lawley fall apart at some stage & let them back in. To have 2 teams finish with over 100pts is incredible & it just shouldn’t happen but I’m struggling to see 1 White being the usual ultra competitive, any side on their day could beat another, sort of setup this year. That’s why for the first time in forever there’s such a spread (predicted) between the top & bottom. Happy if I’m wrong but it just seems to lack the usual depth but let’s see as there’s a long way to go to R18. Basso should go back up but you would think this is their absolute best best case scenario so dropping 2 games will bring them right back to Gosnells who I think are a solid 3rd option & a team that have already beaten Basso 1 this season.
3rd - 91pts - Gosnells: If Gosnells made last week's contest against Mt Lawley more competitive it might be worth elevating them here, maybe into the top 2 but that 20shot spread was across the board. Still for the Kookaburra’s to finish with 91pts is an exceptional season & betters last season's result which makes sense as they seem to be playing a few shots better each game this season.
In saying that, you would think that 91pts is probably well into the best case scenario for them & I was surprised to see them break the 90pt margin. I won’t be surprised to see them finished low 80’s as the big driver for me is that loose 4th rink, them not putting big scores on opposition to date & their patchy away form. I do like the fact that as my bell weather team they have played most of the top sides so there’s easier games ahead for them. R7 will be a huge result for them, if they win I’m happy to support 3rd spot but if they lose against the Roosters it halves the gap between 3rd & 5th, so it’ll be game on.
4th - 85pts - Cockburn: if you asked me to change 1 result it’s probably this one as I think the Roosters will make Finals & I think in 3rd spot. However, the predictor calls it that the Roosters miss out on 3rd so I’ll respect that but they are odds on to be my Smokey for the season. Their balance with Abonnel makes a big difference & takes a lot of pressure off the others. They still are settling away from home but if they grab 4 more on the road I think their home form will be good enough to get them right into Finals. They are the Safety Bay of this year & could play PL if they get some luck. They have put together 3 in a row but playing away this Round will be hard. We only have them winning 1 of the next 4 which is their worst patch of the year. After this they head on a 5 from 6 run & that brings them roaring into Finals.
5th - 76.5pts - Wanneroo: The Roos finishing 5th seems about right. I foolishly had them a lot higher pre-season but I’m losing confidence with that prediction at a rate of knots & 5th seems more practical unless they can seriously start moving through the gears & run a solid purple patch. I think they’re missing that slight polish on the backend from last year but again they’ll have a chance for Finals. We have them down for a nice purple patch from R9 to R13 but a little seasonal wobble which they seem to specialise in between R14 to R16 knock their Finals chances. If they can finish strong they'll have a chance but limping into Finals like last year with a 2 from 7 won't work. If they can get some momentum which should be easier this year with less tricky teams they should be able to maintain a top 4 or 5 spot all year.
6th - 68pts - Sorrento: The Swans have me totally confused. I don’t know whether they’ll push for Finals or finish in Playoffs. Their top team is going brilliantly but at the expense of this side where the guys went up & certainly lifted their game too but I feel it’s left maybe 2 guys short. I think they’ll be terribly unlucky if they head to the playoffs but even if they do I don’t see a 1 Blue side beating them. They have 3 wins so far & I think 7 wins will get them safe as the bar will be lower this year than last year where you really needed 8+ wins. 68 pts is probably the best case scenario we have for the Swans & they could likely finish lower but I don't think 20pts lower & in trouble. Even if they finish 7th they'll be good enough in the Playoffs. They stay no matter whether they are 6th or 7th.
7th - 57pts - Rossmoyne: If Rossmoyne get close to Sorrento, I’m siding with the River Rats as I think there’s a few big wins in them for score difference & they’re already 20shots ahead of the Swans, which is nothing really but I think they can expand that number over the coming weeks. For context Basso had a huge 67pts last year & still finished 7th & needed to head to the Playoffs but it should be a few points easier this year to stay safe. Not intentionally but we have Rossmoyne losing plenty of close games because we feel the depth isn’t quite there like it was over the last few years so that may indicate that a leaky rink might just cost them a few Aggs which they would have grabbed previously. The predictor has the River Rats losing the next 6 in row, seems incredible but if they can nab a few W's from those it'll surely help a lot. In saying that if they start putting teams away & can grab 2 or 3 wins off the top 4 they rocket up the ladder.
8th - 45pts - Warnbro: The Wizards are running 1 from 6 & even though we have them winning 2 of the next 3 it still not enough to get them out of trouble. I did foolishly predict them at the start of the season based on last season's form but because of my laziness I didn't look into the changes & there were a good few in the end. For example R18 last year against who played in say R6, here are the changes......No Mawdsley, Strange, Startling, Rae, Phillips, Guelfi....some have moved on, some down but the exits on the back end were important & have hurt. There is a mid-season horror & we have them only winning 1 game post Xmas which seems a little harsh, so maybe they might come up 1 spot in the end but I think their score differential will go against them if they finish level on points with anyone as they are -144 shots at the moment which is a little eye watering & will be hard to recover. We have them stuck in a nightmare run from R10 to R16 which kills their chances so they'll need to flip a few of those results. They'll have plenty of chances of staying safe & it would be surprising to not see them make safety but for the moment they finish 8th.
9th - 45pts - Basso 2: Basso 2 do ok in the end & they even picked up back to back wins to give them hope of playoffs. If they got another 1 Agg they have a chance of sneaking into the playoffs spot & they could hold their own against a 1 Blue side to create a fairytale of a year for the club. Who would've thought that Basso could bounce back after losing so many last year to keep 1 White & get their top side back into PL. It’s a massive ask & if the predictor is right then Basso 2 are gone into 1 Blue.
Given a fair few of these blokes were Div 2 last season, the longer they go in 1 White the better they’ll get so once they can settle down the rinks & reduce the blowouts they’ll continue to pickup points. They have a pretty tough run to home after R11 so it could be a long way home from there unless they can pull a few from the hat to break the run. Could they get to safety with 58pts+ unlikely but if Warnbro slip up they can roll the dice for the Playoff's which might be their best chance of survival.
10th - 40pts - Quinns Rocks: I do have serious concerns for Quinns as they have not brought their home form & that is really hurting them this season. They have currently only won 1 game all season & the difference between them & the other bottom sides if they have played an incredible 4 games of 6 at home & lost 5 home games. They are overly reliant on Berecz to dig them out of trouble but if the other sides pickup they could give Quinns a better look at the Agg most weeks.
Whether they get a few more than predicted is probably irrelevant as safety would be 57pts+ which means winning the majority of the remaining 12 games, as in probably 8 of 12. They’ll still be very competitive & even finishing on 40pts from their current 12 has them picking up a handful of games so they’re not there as a punching bag.