Only 7 games left after this Round, so we'll really start to weed out the contenders from the pretenders. We might run another predictor after R12 but surprisingly we are tracking very close to that predicted after Round 7. We had the top 3 as Wanneroo, Warnbro & Mosman Park which is bang on where we are now. Then we had Safety Bay, Quinns, Gosnels & Basso in that mid section which is again exactly where we are now, albeit so positional changes but there's only 4pts between the lot so I think we are reasonable happy this may not change too much. Then we had Kardinya, Osborne Park & Warwick as the bottom 3 & this also is the current status quo. Obviously a huge amount can happen from here but I would think that mid section will go right down to the last few bowls in R18.
Word of warning: this is the time of the season we really start to lean into the statistics as after 10 games there's only a certain amount of time and excuses goes by where 'we were unlucky' or 'the wind played up on that crap surface' or the last gasp of blaming the selectors. The reality is the form posted for 10 of 18 games is a fair reflection of where we all might be, come Round 18 (& playoffs). Good luck to all this weekend.
WARWICK v MOSMAN PARK
WARWICK
G Smith, R Newstead, M Golding, D Herbert
L Hill, G Hinge, B McNamara, R Loran
B Ledingham, C Boyle, K Pearce, D Dunstan
J Borkowski, A Hornby, A Henneker, A Dixon IN: R Newstead OUT: J Konig
MOSMAN PARK
C Hoffman, M Cranswick, T Cranswick, M Robertson
D Marsland, S Swanson, P Fair, T Massang
L Beurteaux, W Tan, D Adams, M Van Bemmel
S Jocelyn, A Gryta, G Hagan, O Dawson IN: P Fair OUT: R Moran
Looks it's not to discount the Magpies but the Mossies will be coming out blazing here after last week's loss but they might want to take into account that the Magpies have 2 skipper/rinks in the top 15 & Mosman Park don't. So clearly the talent is there for both sides & Warwick will be keen as mustard to grab the Agg here & i'm not writing them off as they have done bigger scalps at home but dropping 3 from 5 at home isn't ideal. In saying that the Mossie are only 2 from 5 on the road so I would seriously doubt the Magpies are overly worried about anything but their own performance this weekend.
Mosman Park 6 - 2
WARNBRO v KARDINYA
WARNBRO
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KARDINYA
S Vinci, D Wood, G Fewings, M Holt
N Ball, R McNamara, K Stower, W Lee
D Radford, C Stokes, C Booth, G Knight
W Bezant, R Knapp, B Regan, J Edgar IN: J Rochford OUT: C Stokes
The Wizards are home and hosed here so I'm happy to finish the preview at that!!
Yes stranger things have happened but the reality is that the Wizards are sitting 2pts behind the leaders after playing 6 of the 1st 10 games AWAY. Obviously if they don't capitalise on this weekend then they only have themselves to blame but I'm sure they are lining up the next few weeks as critical weeks in their push for a return to PL.
I do worry about the Kats this year but if there's something to take out of this weekend, it's they have won more Away games than Home games so maybe that's the plus they need but they'll need their A game to even grab some points here so let's hope they show.
If the Wizards haven't worked out that they only have 3 Away games for the remaining season & pinpointed the games they need to focus on then they need to get together pretty rapidly as these things disappear quickly & hind sight doesn't get you a ticket to the big dance.
Warnbro 8 - 0
WANNEROO v BASSENDEAN
WANNEROO
D Turra, E Widermanski, B Nelson, B McMurdo
K Toster, D Griffin, G Jack, H Whitman
H Ward, M Nievelstein, G Sarich, B Bucowski
D Triffitt, L Bryson, N Palmer, J Tailor IN: N Palmer, B Nelson OUT: D Charles, B McMonagle
BASSENDEAN
J Krstic, J Morss, M Potente, N Kirkup
T Lynch, B Tie, W Davidson, M Bessant
A Caccioppoli, E O'Sullivan, G Needs, R Furci
R Revell, M Erceg, H Goddard, B Dinnison IN: G Needs, B Dinnison, R Furci OUT: G Stokes, D Snelgar, N Smith
Easy game to call here, although the Roo's might think bg 8, but then I find myself giving the Lions 2 rinks straight away which means that the other 2 rinks just need to stay competitive & they are right in this. Huge chance for Basso here as the Roo's are great at home but they have the slimmest home margin of any top team & certainly nothing close to what you'd expect from a top side so this will be an interesting game if Basso are there abouts with a few ends to go.
The Roos' fought pretty hard last week & put in a huge performance (especially Toster's side), so they'll be keen to get Home and get things back on winning ways. Continuing the momentum from here is huge for the Roo's but yes there's a lot at stake. For Basso this still offers a chance of grabbing some good points as after this its 4 from 7 at home which they'll be bullish on. Yes the Lions have only won 2 on the road but 2 others were only lost by 3 shots or less, so they're competitive.
The Roo's only lost 2 home games all last year & have a surprise Magpies loss & draw so I can't see them dropping this but it could be close.
Osborne Park 6 - 2
OSBORNE PARK v SAFETY BAY
OSBORNE PARK
J Carter, C Fleay, B Boyd, I Bryden
F Di Giuseppe, R Clark, J Minchin, P Allen
M Pasalich, K Walding, A Pasalich, L Bell
M Dewson, S Pasalich, A Garlick, F Mottolini IN: K Walding OUT: T Evans
SAFETY BAY
C Owen, R Kennedy, P Daynes, Z Boddy
C Carruthers, J Radford, G Wilkes, S Foran
G Taylor, S Hide, G Ogg, J Hanafee
R Hall, A Holmes, J Thorington, S McBriar IN: No changes OUT:
I'll be slightest honest here as I initially put down the Bay to win this easy but I'm switching over for the upset of the round to the Saints, after running the stats. I can't say that this is based on some epiphany but merely based on the simple fact that Safety Bay has not won a single game away this season. Yes neither have the Saints won away but that's irrelevant this weekend as they are playing at home where they have won 2 from 5 but they have been competitive across those losses.
Overall the Bay is probably thinking, great we have the bottom side this weekend so a great chance of getting a long awaited away win but something tells me this will be a lot tougher than they think. The corresponding fixture may show a 42 shot trashing to the Bay but I think this maybe closer than expected. Going for the upset with that hard easterly hanging around which might make it hard to work out those greens.
Osborne Park 6 - 2
GOSNELLS v QUINNS ROCKS
GOSNELLS
G Nicol, S Harris, N Tulett, D Bradbury
B Holland, G Lynch, T Auckland, M Rickard
E Gahan, P Gale, C Watters, I Farley
F Carbone, P Deas, C Hickinbotham, R McKay IN: No changes OUT:
QUINNS ROCKS
R Cantrill, A Barker, T Hines, R Thomas
C Parr, C Bartle, W Fairjones, S Newbey
M Hinchcliffe, P Wernicke, T Burrows, S Cavanagh
J Berecz, B Crawford, R Cole, S Smith IN: P Wernicke, T Burrows OUT: D Rogers, S Cooper
This is a very tough game to call as both sides are evenly matched across the board. This is a huge game for both sides as it's 4th plays 5th, winner takes 4th, so its pretty easy maths from here. Gosnells are strong at home. Yes they lost 2 from 5 at home but they were solid games against the top sides, the remaining teams they have put to the sword by an average of 23 shots.
Quinns are running hot, 5 from 6 & plenty left in the tank so they could be the surprise package this year pushing for a PL playoff spot.
I'm siding with the Kookaburra's here on Home form & they're running 3 on the trot but if Quinns bring that home form then it's game on as they are very impressive on their home track.
