Welcome back folks & hope you all had a wonderful Christmas break with plenty of time to rest & forget a shocking 2020! New Year ahead but the same pressure is coming hard looking into R10. No more time for crocodile tears or we were close, it's show time for those looking for the bright lights of PL & panic stations for those looking to maintain their 1 White status if they are hoovering in the lower half.
For entertainment factor, we have run the predictor dice again & here's where we stand coming into R10 running predictions on the next 45 games over the next 9 Rounds.
Round 10 - Final Predictions
Mosman Park 99
Quinns Rocks 71.5
Safety Bay 71
Osborne Park 40.5
From predictions the Wizards head back into the PL but it is very close. The big mover are the Mossies as they jump into 2nd spot & that's them running unbeaten from R10 which means they'll go 14 from 15 if that happens. We have double checked the predicted results again & it's hard to drop them points at home even though they play some excellent sides but Away they have some pretty soft games which we expect them to pickup the easier wins. Hard to see it happening as it's very competitive this year but that's what the predictor has spit out so let's see what happens. The big story from the 'final' ladder positions is the fight for 4th spot. Before we even start on the commentary we did not adjust or manipulate any results for it to finish the way it has. We have 4th on 71.5pts & 7th on 67.5pts (only 4pts), so we have 4 teams who could take that final 4th spot & whoever misses out of those 4 sides has to enter the relegation playoff which seems incredible that within a bowl or two, you are playing Finals or getting demoted. If it finishes anything like this it will be a massive & very exciting or nerve racking last day. The last shows Basso losing to enter playoffs for the 2nd season in a row. Gosnells winning to get them out of the playoffs. Safety Bay also losing to throw away a Finals spot & Quinns also losing but hang onto the 4th spot by 0.5pt.....could this get any more exciting?!! Obviously alot to play for between now & then but strap in & hold onto your hat folks.....here we go.
KARDINYA v GOSNELLS
S Vinci, D Wood, K Stower, M Holt
N Ball, G Fewings, R McNamara, W Lee
D Radford, J Rochford, C Booth, G Knight
W Bezant, R Knapp, B Regan, J Edgar IN: D Radford OUT: G Stokes
G Nicol, S Harris, N Tulett, D Bradbury
B Holland, G Lynch, T Auckland, M Rickard
E Gahan, P Gale, M Crabb, C Watters
F Carbone, P Deas, C Hickinbotham, R McKay IN: No changes OUT:
To say the Kats need this one is a huge understatement. They'll need every point from here to avoid automatic demotion & I feel they'll be playing a playoff if it's not automatic if they can't get some serious form together over the next 3-4 rounds. In saying that we could flip the overly positive twist on their current situation & point out that they are only 10pts off 4th spot with a chance of playing Finals. Such is the cut throat games this year that the mid-table of 1 White is very condensed.
Gosnells are currently sitting in that coveted 4th spot, 10pts ahead of the Kats & travelling well winning 5 from 9 after getting their campaign back on track. Unsure if they can grab 3rd spot as I'm quite happy the top 3 is sorted, although stranger things have happened. Eitherway, the Kookaburra's have probably shown more over the 1st half to edge them here on a surface they won't mind.
Gosnells 6 - 2
QUINNS ROCKS v WARWICK
R Cantrill, A Barker, T Hines, R Thomas
C Parr, C Bartle, W Fairjones, S Newbey
M Hinchcliffe, S Cooper, L Johnson, S Cavanagh
J Berecz, B Crawford, R Cole, S Smith IN: D Rogers, P Wernicke OUT: R Cole, R Thomas
G Smith, G Hinge, M Golding, D Herbert
L Hill, B McNamara, R Loran, J Konig
B Ledingham, C Boyle, K Pearce, D Dunstan
J Borkowski, A Hornby, A Henneker, A Dixon IN: R Newstead OUT: M Golding
Quinns Rocks are now running a very impressive 4 from 5 after a shaky start, with some huge scalps, which has got them right into the count & sitting 0.5pts off a Finals spot in 4th. If they can keep the momentum they'll easily make Finals as I have them dropping a few on the predictor & they still manage to sneak into Finals. Quinns have started to get some good form together the only concern is them getting smashed on the road which has led me to drop some games on the back 9 as they have 5 away games.
Warwick have won 2 from 3 so they certainly have picked up their form & put some valuable points on the board but they'll need a serious run & this could be a game they fancy themselves considering they hockeyed Quinns by 45shots & scored over 100 shots in R1. A lot has changed since then but surely they are not without a chance considering the corresponding fixture.
Quinns Rocks 7 - 1
SAFETY BAY v WARNBRO
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, , ,
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, , , IN: OUT:
K Cousens, G Watts, M Rae, P Guelfi
W Baker, D Pattullo, L Kellow, J Maley
L Strange, Dr G Jackson, A Shone, D Phillips
S Mawdsley, K Bancroft, T DeBrouwer, D Kitson IN: No change OUT:
The Bay need a big performance here against the in-form side of the comp. They had a great close game in R1 playing away to the Wizards so it's reasonable on that performance to say their home advantage is easily worth those 6 shots. Losing this leaves the Bay 1 from 6 & probably puts a significant dent in their Finals chance although I do see them finishing strong over the last 5 games.
If Warnbro wins this it starts to become difficult for many to catch them especially if the Roo's lose to the Mossies. Yes the Wizards are only 3 from the last 5 so there are chinks in the armour but the majority of wins are quite comfortable, for example they have the best For Against spread of 34 shots than anyone else. So yes they have dropped 2 but over the other 7 they are putting teams to the sword early in games. For comparison, the Roo's have a 1 shot spread For/Against which shows they are winning but finding it more difficult to push past teams & win easily.
Tough game to call but Warnbro are probably travelling better at the moment but if the Bay bring that early season form then it's game on for a huge game for both sides.
Warnbro 6 - 2
BASSENDEAN v OSBORNE PARK
J Krstic, J Morss, M Simpson, N Kirkup
T Lynch, W Davidson, B Tie, M Bessant
A Caccioppoli, E O'Sullivan, N Smith, D Snelgar
R Revell, M Erceg, H Goddard, G Stokes IN: B Tie, M Simpson, N Smith OUT: D Rhodes, A Smith, R Ellis
J Carter, R Clark, B Boyd, T Evans
F Di Giuseppe, M Pasalich, M Carmichael, L Bell
C Fleay, A Pasalich, J Minchin, P Allen
M Dewson, S Pasalich, K Walding, F Mottolini IN: K Walding OUT: I Bryden
Basso need to get back on the horse quickly to get their season back on track before it's too late. They had a solid start to the season but only winning 1 from the last 5 has knocked them right down the ladder, when it was looking very rosy for a while. Although this is certainly a big chance for them to get back to winning ways against the bottom side. The fact is the Lions need to win 5 of their 9 to guarantee their position in 1 White next year so getting a big W here is the start they need. Overall they are scoring very low at home, probably the lowest in years which is strange considering they normally score at will on the home games especially with the grass running so well over the last few months. They are running a 73 shot average at Home which is the lowest of any side in the comp. If they fix this they'll go well this Round.
The Saints are all but gone & maybe have 1 mind in 1 Blue North already but there's certainly still plenty of spark left in some of their 16 to make them very dangerous over the next 9 rounds. For them to even get to demotinal playoffs they would need to pickup 5 from 9 games where I currently ony have them winning 2 from 9 on the run home. If they can get another 3 games I would fancy them against some top sides in 1 Blue as they have the guts of a good side.
Bassendean 7 - 1
MOSMAN PARK v WANNEROO
C Hoffman, M Cranswick, T Cranswick, M Robertson
D Marsland, S Swanson, W Tan, T Massang
L Beurteaux, S Edmonds, D Adams, M Van Bemmel
S Jocelyn, A Gryta, R Moran, O Dawson IN: No changes OUT:
D Turra, E Widermanski, B Nelson, B McMurdo
K Toster, D Griffin, G Jack, H Whitman
H Ward, M Nievelstein, G Sarich, B Bucowski
D Triffitt, L Bryson, B McMonagle, J Tailor IN: B Nelson, M Nievelstein OUT: A Starkey, N Palmer
The Mossies are flying at the moment & boost the best form coming into R10 winning 5 from 6. We did mention in the earlier rounds chat that we see Mossies coming home strong & we are not shifting on this call as their momentum is building nicely. Although their season could possibly hinge on this game, it's just a massive game for both sides. The winner of this probably takes a top 2 spot, it's THAT important. The only concern for Mosman Park is having that dominant side as they only have 1 skipper in the top 15 which is unusual for a top side but they are a few chasing inside the top 20 with great runs & have played less games so it might balance out over the next few rounds or on the flip-side, indicates a well balanced side.
The Roo's are envisioning that deja vu from last year with the mid-season knee wobbles that knocked them out of auto-promotion to PL last year. If they lose this then it's 3 in a row & I'm happy to write them off taking top spot losing 3 on the trot. Losing 3 for the entire season is what you might expect as a minimum for top spot although dropping 4 & still taking top spot is achievable but who knows they way this crazy season is going. Wanneroo need the big names to lift this weekend & drive them over the line to get them back into the winners circle. If the Roo's win this I would be shocked if there were more than 6 shots in the Agg but I'll side with the form team which is also the home side in a very close game which should be a cracker.